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Ultimate Tour Breakdown: Now that the mud has settled on the 2022 Tour de France, Spencer Martin has had time to take a look at the ‘huge image’ and provides us his information & figures on how the Tour was gained… and misplaced.
– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Join right here for full entry. –
Jonas Vingegaard – spectacular
After having a number of days to ponder Jonas Vingegaard’s extremely scientific and spectacular dismantling of his competitors to take his first general Tour de France victory, I needed to return by means of the defining phases to interrupt down the place precisely he gained the three-week race over the two-time winner, and heavy pre-race favourite, Tadej Pogačar.
At first look, Vingegaard gained as a result of energy of his Jumbo-Visma workforce and the weak point of Pogačar’s UAE workforce, together with a single dangerous second from Pogačar on the ultimate climb of stage 11 that many have advised was resulting from a scarcity of fueling or sickness. Nonetheless, below nearer inspection, Vingegaard matched or outrode Pogačar each time the race went uphill, completed even with him within the time trials, and solely misplaced small chunks of time over the cobblestones (resulting from a mechanical) and through time bonuses. Which means there was no state of affairs the place Pogačar was in a position to really pry open true time gaps on Vingegaard in a one-on-one racing state of affairs. This tells us that Vingegaard is a worthy champion of the occasions and easily outrode Pogačar over three weeks and in addition hints that Pogačar returning to win the race sooner or later might be harder than some slight technique changes like most pundits are suggesting.
To assist us digest the top end result, and try to grasp what precisely occurred and the place errors/profitable strikes have been made, I’ve remoted each stage the place the highest three gained/misplaced time relative to one another and the way a lot time they gained/misplaced.
Time acquire on stage for Pogačar
The place Time Was Received/Misplaced
Stage 1 Time Trial
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +8
Geraint Thomas +18
Stage 5 Cobblestones
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +13
Geraint Thomas +13
Stage 6 Uphill Dash
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +10
Geraint Thomas +15
Stage 7 summit – time for Pogačar
Stage 7 Summit End
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +4
Geraint Thomas +24
Stage 8 Uphill Dash
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +4
Geraint Thomas +4
Stage 9 Uphill End
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Geraint Thomas +3
Stage 11 Summit End
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Geraint Thomas +1’48
Tadej Pogačar +3’01
Stage 14 Uphill End
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Geraint Thomas +17
Stage 17 Summit End
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +4
Geraint Thomas +2’17
Stage 18 Summit End
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar +1’08
Geraint Thomas +3’04
Stage 20 Time Trial
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar +8
Geraint Thomas +13
Time acquire for Vingegaard on stage 20
Course Sort The place Time Was Received/Misplaced:
Uphill/Summit End:
Vingegaard +0
Pogačar +3’55
Thomas +7’18
Time Trial:
Pogačar +0
Vingegaard +0
Thomas +23
Time Bonuses:
Pogačar +0
Vingegaard +8
Geraint Thomas +40
Cobblestones:
Pogačar +0
Vingegaard +13
Thomas +13
Pogačar gained time on the cobbles
Vingegaard vs Pogacar Course Sort:
Main Mountain Phases (3): 235-seconds Vingegaard
Cobbled Phases (1): 13-seconds Pogačar
Time Bonuses (4): 8-seconds Pogačar
Time Trials (2): 0-seconds taken
Hilly Phases (4): 0-seconds gained
The above knowledge backs up what I discussed above, which is that Vingegaard outrode Pogacar on the climbs, matched him within the time trials, and solely leaked time through time bonuses and cobblestones. It additionally exhibits us that Thomas, regardless of placing in probably the greatest rides of his profession, misplaced time on each course kind, which tells us that he was completely outmatched and had no selection however to race for the ultimate podium spot.
Pogačar appeared snug on the finish of the primary week
When the Podium Received/Misplaced Time Relative to Vingegaard:
Week 1 (Phases 1-9)
Pogačar -39
Vingegaard +0
Thomas +38
Week 2 (Phases 10-15)
Vingegaard +0
Thomas +2’05
Pogačar +3’01
Week 3 (Phases 16-21)
Vingegaard +0
Pogačar +1’12
Thomas +5’30
This breakdown exhibits us that Vingegaard, after dropping time within the first week, dominated each Pogačar and Thomas over the remainder of the race. And identical to final 12 months, he was the quickest by means of the course within the third week and begins to point out a pattern the place he will get stronger (or will get much less weak) than his competitors, which is a large benefit for a grand tour GC contender.
Superior climbing from Vingegaard
Takeaways
Jonas Vingegaard gained this Tour with a mixture of excessive endurance and superior climbing skill
- Regardless of this Tour being gained with a large time margin, Vingegaard solely unleashed a single true assault (5km remaining on stage 11) and solely dropped Pogačar twice (stage 11 & stage 18). This stands in stark distinction to the uber-aggressive model displayed by Pogacar and exhibits that exterior of being an especially sturdy rider, Vingegaard’s superpower is his endurance and skill to preserve vitality over a three-week race.
- Additionally, a lot has been made in regards to the energy of Vingegaard’s Jumbo-Visma workforce, however after we have a look at the info, it tells us that he really gained the race when the course tilted upwards, the place workforce energy counts for much less.
- Vingegaard/Pogacar Time Distinction per Stage Sort
Main Mountain Phases: 78.3-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)
Time Bonuses: 2-seconds per stage (Pogačar)
Time Trials: 0-seconds per stage
Hilly Phases: 0-seconds per stage - In fact, there are intangible advantages to having a powerful workforce, like preserving Vingegaard out of hassle by means of the opening phases in Denmark (the place not crashing out was technically as essential to profitable the race as his performances within the mountains), however Vingegaard was so sturdy in each the time trials and on the climbs, each nearly completely particular person efforts, that it appears borderline insulting to recommend he solely gained the race resulting from his workforce.
Jumbo full on, on stage 11
The Jumbo-Visma full-court press on Stage 11 was a key constructing block to Vingegaard’s profitable experience
- Nonetheless, whereas climbing is especially a person pursuit (the steeper gradients decrease speeds which lower the advantages of drafting) I’d be remiss to not point out that Jonas Vingegaard took 85% of his (efficient) profitable margin over Pogačar throughout his lone assault on the ultimate climb of stage 11 after Pogačar had been pressured to answer repeated assaults from Vingegaard’s teammate Primoz Roglič.
- This can be a prime instance of how Jumbo’s sturdy squad helped Vingegaard, but additionally highlighted a few of Pogačar’s inexperience. For instance, he spent a big quantity of vitality closing down Roglič’s assaults (whereas Vingegaard was in a position to sit in his draft) whereas Roglič was minutes down within the GC and never a practical GC risk. A extra seasoned rider would possible have referred to as Jumbo’s bluff and centered particularly on Vingegaard on this state of affairs.
- And an excellent larger mistake was his determination to take the Jumbo bait by attending to the entrance and setting a tough tempo on the Galibier climb to discourage extra Roglič assaults (and using ready that gave Vingegaard to make use of Pogačar as shelter from the substantial crosswinds). This was a mistake because it 1) brought on him to deplete vitality he might have used on the ultimate climb, 2) stored his personal chasing teammates off the again and three) didn’t give him an opportunity to gas correctly, which possible contributed to operating out of gas on the ultimate climb.
An excessive amount of too quickly for Pogačar?
Pogačar was far too aggressive within the opening week & took the Yellow Jersey far too early
- After we have a look at the pattern of the gaps between the eventual prime three, it’s clear that Pogačar got here out extraordinarily scorching over the primary 9 phases solely to crash on stage 11 after which fade additional over the following week.
- One has to think about {that a} main motive for this fading was his excessively aggressive model over the primary 9 phases when he was needlessly chasing wins or sprinting for minor placings on the finish of each stage. Whereas we are able to’t know for sure if this brought on his efficiency to say no later within the race, we do know that this can be very uncommon for riders to win the Tour after chasing stage wins early within the race.
- One other questionable determination was his UAE workforce chasing again breakaways to each get and maintain onto the Yellow Jersey within the first week. Since holding the race lead is extraordinarily taxing on the chief’s teammates and UAE had a tough time supporting Pogacar in key elements of the race, we are able to come to the conclusion that it will possible have been wiser to ‘present’ the jersey away shortly after getting it on stage 6.
Stage 5 was not day for Jumbo, however the survived – Finally Roglič didn’t
Jumbo’s stage 5 ‘scramble’, and ensuing chase, saved Vingegaard’s race
- The Jumbo workforce has been much-mocked for its extremely chaotic response to Jonas Vingegaard’s mechanical difficulty on the cobbled stage 5, however looking back, their skill to get him a brand new bike, and get him again into the principle GC group through a powerful chase (led by Van Aert), was a significant contribution to his general victory.
- He might need been in a position to restrict his losses to 1-2 minutes (as a substitute of 13-seconds) with a lesser workforce, which technically would nonetheless have been shut sufficient for him to win the general, however the truth that he was so near Pogačar going into stage 11 possible contributed to Pogačar’s overreaction and eventual collapse.
Stage 11 – Pogačar’s undoing
Put up-Tour Questions
How might Pogačar have gained this race?
- Racing much more conservatively by means of the primary week and realizing that after stage 7 Vingegaard was his solely true GC rival, and in flip, focusing solely on him, would have tremendously elevated his probabilities of victory.
- This could have allowed him to easily permit Roglič’s doomed assaults going up the highway heading into the Galibier and heading into the Granon climb with a lot brisker legs.
- If he might have merely completed behind, however equal on time with, Vingegaard on Phases 11 & 18, he might have gained this race by means of time bonuses through a single second (which additionally would have arrange probably the most thrilling ultimate time trial within the historical past of the race).
Crew change?
Can Pogačar recapture the Tour title whereas at UAE?
- It’s definitely attainable that Pogačar might return in 2023 with a renewed focus and beat Vingegaard, who must tackle extra intense pre-race stress.
- Nonetheless, after watching this Tour, we shouldn’t be so certain this can be so simple as Pogacar exhibiting up and displaying extra endurance. In any case, he didn’t distance Vingegaard a single time on any uphill piece of highway, was dropped twice, and completed even with Vingegaard after 53kms of time trailing.
- Not solely will he should optimize his pre-Tour coaching schedule to get even with Vingegaard on the climbs, however he may also should execute all the Tour with excessive precision as a result of extraordinarily small margin of error that comes together with racing such a worthy opponent.
- The truth that there didn’t appear to be any true management from contained in the UAE workforce automotive (together with Pogacar arguing with the automotive, particularly in regards to the lack of vitamin/water being given to him) signifies that he might have to alter groups or herald a extra controlling workforce supervisor to handle the large image technique if he needs to win his third general title.
May Van Aert be in Yellow in Paris sooner or later?
May Wout van Aert be an general contender?
- One thing that has confused novices and specialists alike is how the game’s finest rider is ready to seemingly dominate each stage of the Tour de France however has little interest in trying to win the general title.
- In the mean time, Van Aert’s comparatively large body (1.90 meters tall @ 77kgs) has appeared to trigger consistency points on excessive alpine climbs which have stored him from profitable one-week stage races just like the Dauphine and Tirreno–Adriatico. It stands to motive that if he can’t deal with alpine climbs over the course of every week on the Dauphine, he gained’t have the ability to deal with a 3 week GC grind on the Tour.
- Nonetheless, nothing may be dominated out sooner or later for such a proficient rider, and it’s tough to think about he wouldn’t be a minimum of a contender if he wished to go on a Geraint Thomas/Bradley Wiggins slim-down program and chase the general title. In any case, he’s a much more proficient rider than both of these former Tour winners and has already dominated extraordinarily tough mountain phases.
- The foremost query right here is probably going much less ‘can he’ and extra ‘would he need to?’ In any case, dropping important quantities of weight seemed to be each bodily and emotionally taxing on riders like Tom Dumoulin and Wiggins in addition to robbing them of the tremendous high-end energy they have been able to earlier than the load loss.
- Additionally, Van Aert, one of the crucial illogical, thrilling, and aggressive riders we’ve ever seen must eschew this model in favor of a much more subdued and patience-based (i.e. Vingegaard) model of using. It isn’t clear if he’s able to, or needs to, using on this method.
Will the Jumbo-Visma band keep collectively?
Can Jumbo preserve the band collectively?
- The Dutch superteam dominated the Tour with their collective energy, however one has to marvel how lengthy they’ll preserve riders like Primoz Roglič and Wout van Aert as in-house tremendous domestiques with out with the ability to provide management and/or stage-win chasing alternatives.
- Because it turns into an increasing number of clear that Jonas Vingegaard can be one of many sport’s foremost GC stars going ahead, the workforce must put an increasing number of assets in the direction of his ambitions to maintain him completely happy, which can nearly definitely see Roglič look to depart for extra alternatives elsewhere.
Jonas Vingegaard – A worthy Tour winner
# Spencer Martin is the creator of the cycling-analysis publication Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions huge image questions surrounding workforce and rider efficiency. Join now to get full entry to all of the obtainable content material and race breakdowns. #
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